A Farewell to Punting?

David Romer, an economist at UC Berkeley, published a study in 2005 titled "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence From Professional Football," which analyzes how effective punting is as a strategy in football. Now, obviously this study is around 11 years old as I'm writing this, but punting is still a strong part of the game, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere, so it might be worth revisiting.

Ray Guy, the sole Punter in the Pro Football Hall of Fame

Rommer studied NFL data of punts from 1998 to 2004, To summarize the main conclusion of the study, teams should never punt if they are within four yards of the first down markers, regardless of what yard line they are on. Without getting into the economic and statistical analysis of punting vs going for it (which I don't claim to understand), I still think there are obviously situations where punting is vital; if you're backed up in your own red zone and it's fourth down, your primary concern is booting the ball as far away from your endzone as possible, not failing to convert and having your opponent get the ball 30 feet away from the goal line. But more importantly, special teams is widely understood to be one of the most dangerous aspects of football, and eventually it might be worth removing it entirely from the game, especially at lower levels.

The NFL may agree to an extent, at least on kickoffs. This year, the NFL changed the staring point after a touchback from the 20 yard line to the 25, (theoretically) encouraging more kick returners to let balls bounce out of the endzone for a touchback, rather than attempting to make a return and risking injury for themselves or the other 21 players on the fields. Of course, this rule change backfired, because while returners may be more likely to settle for a touchback if they get an extra 5 yards out of it, NFL coaches and kickers are not so keen.

PDF of Dr. Romer's study:
http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf