Bo Jackson, and What I See as the Future of Football

Earlier this week Bo Jackson, one of the greatest multi-sport athletes of all time, said that he "would never have played football" had he known the risk of head injuries and CTE that are inherent to the game.

Jackson was a true renaissance man within sports. At Auburn University, he ran track, played baseball, and won the Heisman trophy as a running back. He was drafted first overall by the Los Angeles Raiders in 1986, and played both for the Raiders in the NFL and the Kansas City Royals in Major League Baseball simultaneously for four years, until a hip injury prematurely ended his football career. His MLB career continued on for several more years after he recovered from the injury. To this day, he is the only athlete to ever named an All-Star in both the MLB and NFL.

Bo Jackson's comments are significant because they allude to a trend that I foresee happening within the next couple decades: due to increasing awareness of the dangers of head injuries, the best male athletes in the United States will start gravitating towards sports other than football. Jackson was an exceptional athlete, but there are quite a few players currently in the NFL who played other sports at high levels as well. Tight ends Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates, two of the best players at their position right now and potential hall-of-famers in the future, both played basketball in college. Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, and Jameis Winston, all current starting NFL quarterbacks, each got selected in the MLB draft at one point. Football is such a versatile sport that its players can succeed in one of the numerous other sports played in the United States.

Therefore, the stark changes in levels of participation will start from the ground up. I think parents, especially of younger kids but even of high schoolers, will be less likely to let their children play football. Thus, the talent pool will somewhat diminish for college programs, and while I don't think the number of players participating will decrease (at least at the Division 1 level), the level of performance will go down because, again, the best athletes will play other sports. This change will extend to the NFL as well.

I've been meaning to write something on where I see the future of football being 15, 20 years down the line. That might not seem like a long amount of time, but the average NFL career is only four years, and outside of quarterbacks and kickers, you have a team of virtually entirely different players every five years or so, let alone every decade. But anyway, eventually, I think football is going to be like what boxing in the US is now. It'll still exist, it'll still be a sport that draws huge crowds and pays large chunks of money for its athletes. It'll still be shown on mainstream television, it'll still be talked about on talk radio and by the water cooler. But it won't be a mainstream sport. It won't be one of the "Big Four," like it is now (for those unfamiliar with the term, the big four refers to the four major professional sports in the United States: football, baseball, basketball, hockey). Kids won't grow up dreaming about catching a touchdown pass in the Super Bowl in the same way that they'd dream about hitting a shot in the NBA finals or a home run in the World Series.

Like boxing is now, football will largely be seen as too barbaric for kids to play. Older high school kids and college-aged students might do it on the side on club teams, but it won't be an official high school or NCAA sport, just like boxing isn't. The kids who do want to seriously pursue football, like many who pursue boxing in the past and nowadays, aren't gonna be ones who see themselves going to college or getting a normal job. They're not gonna plan on having a nice, long, healthy life after their sports careers are over. They're most likely going to be kids who have no desire for anything in the world except to play professional football, and might likely come from poverty or other hardships where football seems like the only way out. This story might seem like a stretch, but the rags-to-riches narrative is one that is already extremely common in the NFL today.

Of course, there are reasons to believe I'm wrong. Maybe scientific advancements with helmet technology, concussion prevention, concussion treatment, and/or CTE treatment will save the game. Obviously, those developments would be nothing short of amazing. But I'm not counting on that, at least not in the short run.

The main reason to believe that I'm wrong about the future of football is that many people either don't understand the risks of head injuries in football, or have some other reasons to ignore the risks if they do understand them. At the risk of getting too political, it reminds me a lot of the climate change "debate." The jury is in on whether preventable human activities contribute to the warming of our planet: they do. But people act like it's still a discussion because either they don't understand climate change, don't care, or have some vested economic interest that incentivizes them to deny science. The same exact thing holds true with football and head injuries.

Thus, I acknowledge that such a big cultural change might not happen so quickly, and it might not happen in a linear fashion. Shoot, we just elected a president who denies the severity of both climate change and of concussions (see the article I wrote back in October on that issue here). It's a gradual process. But look at all the progress that's been made on the concussion crisis. 5 years ago, if an NFL player took a hit to the head and left a big game to get medically evaluated, he would be torn apart by fans and by the media. But today, if a player takes a shot and isn't removed from play, the media is all over it. Just look at what happened this year with Cam Newton, what happened a couple weeks ago with Matt Moore. Overall, that development makes me optimistic.

Matt Moore

One of the most discussed plays in the Steelers' 30-12 routing of the Dolphins this past wild card weekend is the hit on Dolphins QB Matt Moore, a backup who replaced starter Ryan Tannehill after Tannehill went down on December 11th with an ACL/MCL sprain.

In the second quarter, Moore took a huge hit to the neck/jaw area by Steelers linebacker Bud Dupree. I would try to describe the hit, but you might as well just see the film to understand it.

Although Moore allegedly didn't lose consciousness after the hit, he was on the ground talking to training staff for at least a couple minutes. He was able to walk to the Miami sideline and underwent the NFL's concussion protocol, only to return one play later. Yes, after that hit, Moore returned to the field and finished the rest of the game.

Now, a lot of people online are debating whether the concussion protocol was truly followed to its fullest extent in Moore's case. Today, the NFL announced it is reviewing whether the concussion protocol was properly followed. It will do so in conjunction with the NFL Player's Association (NFLPA), and the review will reportedly feature a review of the film and interviews with the parties involved in the incident.

I'm not here to speculate on that issue, for a few reasons. When asked about the hit during a postgame press conference, Moore stated, "[I] needed a second there. So got checked out, felt fine, was really more my jaw than anything else. Felt good, came back in, was fine." Of course, only Moore knows whether he's telling the truth or not, but the point is that we truly don't know, so there's no point in speculating. Additionally, Moore was attended to a decent period of time. Yes, he only missed one play, but a few minutes had already passed in the time between when he first began to be evaluated, to when the play he missed started. Lastly, it seemed like Moore ran out onto the field himself, rather than being pushed by a doctor or coach. 

Just to clarify, none of those reasons are good, and of course I think that Moore should have been taken out for way more time, if not for the rest of the game. But I'm trying to point out that arguing over whether the concussion protocol was properly followed is futile, because we don't have enough evidence.

What I am here to discuss, however, is the reaction to Moore's return by the media. Moore was heralded as brave, tough, a hero. And I do think it's laudable that, assuming he didn't suffer a concussion, he was able to return from such a big hit. But it's problematic that he's being praised for doing so. As I often write, the media and public has to understand that a concussion isn't like other injuries.

Playing through a hamstring strain or a broken hand certainly takes toughness and maturity, and I'm all for celebrating that kind of resilience, especially in a playoff game. Playing through a concussion, however, is life threatening. Again, I'm not claiming that Moore did that. But when reporters on mainstream sports media, like ESPN, are applauding Moore for returning to the game, it sends the wrong message to fans, players, and coaches at all levels. If anything, players who suffer concussions and remove themselves from play on their own volition, those are the ones who should be heralded.

We need a culture change in order to solve this concussion crisis. We need increased awareness, better understanding, and proper execution. Reactions like that of many sports media stations on Sunday reveal how there is still much work to be done in that regard.

Tom Savage and Lessons for Concussion Protocol

Anyone who's been following the NFL this season has probably seen the disappointment of many fans and analysts in Houston Texans QB Brock Osweiler. Coming off of his role as a backup to Peyton Manning as the Broncos marched to a Super Bowl 50 victory, Osweiler signed a now somewhat infamous four year, $72 million contract with the Texans before this season, making him one of the highest paid players in the league.

Osweiler, who only had 7 career starts before signing his contract, has certainly underperformed thus far, leading the Texans to an 8-6 record as a starter in one of the easiest divisions in the NFL. He also is near the bottom in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, rating 27th in those categories at the end of the regular season. Long story short, Osweiler wasn't getting it done, so Bill O'Brein decided to pull him in a week 15 matchup against Jacksonville, where Osweiler had 2 interceptions and didn't put up a single point against a subpar opponent in two quarters of play. So, the Texans, with strong support from the home crowd at NRG Stadium, put in backup quarterback Tom Savage, a third year player out of the University of Pittsburgh who no career starts prior to this season.

Tom Savage enjoyed some success, leading the Texans to a win both against Jacksonville when he replaced Osweiler, and then again the following week against Cincinnati. However, in week 17 facing Tennessee, Savage took a shot early in the 2nd quarter on a QB sneak, as was removed from the game by officials to be evaluated for a concussion. However, Savage cleared the concussion examinations, and briefly returned to action later in the second quarter. However, he apparently experienced concussion symptoms when returning to the field, and at halftime was ruled out for the remainder of the game. Today, four days later, he remains in the NFL's concussion protocol, and is unlikely to start in this week's AFC wild card matchup against Oakland.

Initially, I was disappointed that Savage returned to the game at all, but after thinking about it, I realized that the league really did do everything it needed to; Savage was watched by one of the league's concussion spotters up in the press box, and the spotter contacted an official down on the field who removed Savage from the game. We no reason not to believe that he was evaluated thoroughly by team doctors, and was probably symptom free when he returned to the game.

The real lesson here, though, is that even if a player returns to the field after passing concussion protocol, officials and team staff should keep a special eye on the player for the remainder of the game, because concussion symptoms can often take time to develop. Especially, under the adrenaline-fueled atmosphere of a game, a player might not experience symptoms for minutes, hours, or even days after the initial hit. We've seen this situation before this season; back in November, Colts QB Andrew Luck completed the matchup against the Titans, but reported concussion symptoms well after the game, and missed his team's Thanksgiving day game against Pittsburgh.

Understanding that symptoms do not always develop immediately after a concussive hit is a next level that the NFL's concussion protocol can incorporate in order to properly protect players. Overall, concussions are difficult to diagnose, because they're an invisible injury barring loss of consciousness, balance problems, or a few other symptoms, so responsibility falls on players as well to report symptoms that develop late. But it's a two way street, and the concussion protocol could possibly include checkups at the end of each quarter and at the end of the game if a player is evaluated but then returns to play.